Trading BRICS Currencies

Economists have estimated that by 2050 the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa will surpass those of the G7 nations in gross domestic production. Along the way the currencies of the so called BRICS nations will likely prosper as well versus G7 currencies. Trading BRICS currencies may well be profitable, both betting on a slow and steady surge in value and trading BRICS currencies during periods of volatility versus the current major currencies. A viable strategy for foreign currency trading in the years ahead may well be to focus on the economic shift of the BRICS nations versus the G-7. The G-7 nations currently account for just over fifty percent of global GDP. G-7 nations include Canada, France, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, the United States, and Germany. The following are GDP numbers for the various nations from 2011.

G-7 Nations and Current GDP / Trillions

BRICs Nations and Current GDP / Trillions

Canada $1.7 T Brazil $2.5 T
France $2.7 T Russia $1.8 T
Great Britain $2.4 T India $1.7 T
Italy $2.2 T China $7.8 T
Japan $5.8 T South Africa $0.4 T
United States $14.8 T
Germany $3.6 T
Total $33.2 T Total $14.2 T

Mexico and South Korea, according to some, belong in the BRICS group but most economists consider these nations more economically advanced and closer to being on par with the G-7 nations. Nations that may well enter the economic realm of the BRICS nations in the next few years include Turkey, Indonesia, and Nigeria. From the viewpoint of trading BRICS currencies all of these are nations and currencies to watch.

Which Currencies to Trade

Let us make the general assumption that the BRICS nations and others mentioned above will continue to prosper and come on par with the current world economic leaders. Over the long term it would seem logical to invest in these nations and gain both as investments prosper and as their currencies grow in value. But, to make money trading Forex we need to trade currencies with diverging values. Thus it might make more sense to trade G-7 currencies versus BRICS currencies. The G-7 currencies, plus Australia are the major Forex currencies (Italy, France, and Germany use the Euro). If you do so you will be trading a major versus a minor Forex currency. Trading a BRICS currency versus a BRICS currency will amount to trading two minor Forex currencies. Although the situation may changes as the BRICS economies grow there is still much larger trading volume when major currencies are involved. This provides a degree of stability to trading and makes technical analysis more accurate. Many times it is not possible to trade one minor currency versus the other but rather one trades the first versus the US dollar and then the US dollar versus the second currency.

BRICS Buying Dollars

When trading BRICS currencies versus the majors, especially the dollar, remember that Japan, Taiwan, and China have made an art form out of buying US dollars in order to keep the dollar strong and their own currency relatively weaker. These nations do this in order to preserve an advantage in exporting products, especially to North America and Europe. When trading BRICS currencies the trader must keep abreast of the economic and central bank policies of the nations involved. Doing so will allow the trader to benefit from the ups and downs of these currencies as they steadily advance in value compared to the current major currencies.